WASHINGTON—The
U.S. military has revised plans to withdraw troops from Afghanistan to
allow the White House to wait until President Hamid Karzai leaves office
before completing a security pact and settling on a post-2014 U.S.
troop presence, officials said.
The option for waiting
reflects a growing belief in Washington that there is little chance of
repairing relations with Mr. Karzai and getting him to sign the
bilateral security agreement before elections scheduled for the spring.
"If
he's not going to be part of the solution, we have to have a way to get
past him," said a senior U.S. official. "It's a pragmatic recognition
that clearly Karzai may not sign the BSA and that he doesn't represent
the voice of the Afghan people."
The military plan is the most
significant example to date of how the U.S. has sought to minimize its
reliance on Mr. Karzai, whose refusal to sign the security agreement
amid a flurry of anti-American statements has upset Washington policy
makers. The White House has said Mr. Karzai's refusal has raised
prospects that President Barack Obama will order a complete U.S. troop
withdrawal this year. Afghan officials had no immediate comment.
Mr.
Obama and Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel have signaled their displeasure
with Mr. Karzai by limiting their contacts with him. The U.S. and
Afghan leaders haven't held a videoconference call to discuss the war
effort since the summer, officials said. Mr. Hagel visited Afghanistan
in December but didn't meet Mr. Karzai. Susan Rice, Mr. Obama's national
security adviser, had a frosty meeting with Mr. Karzai in Kabul in
November.
The new message from the U.S. military amounts
to an about-face from what some Pentagon leaders had been saying
publicly for months.
In November, Mr. Hagel said that "we
need to have that agreement signed by the end of the year," and added:
"I think President Obama has been very clear on that, that he can't make
any commitments or define any future role and troop numbers post 2014
until we have that."
Likewise, White House Press Secretary
Jay Carney has said repeatedly in recent weeks that the U.S. wants the
Afghanistan government to sign the security agreement in matter of
"weeks."
Now U.S. military leaders say a further delay is
less of a concern, from their perspective. "The real challenge for the
BSA delay is not associated with military planning," one senior U.S.
military official said.
Senior U.S. military and
administration officials said the U.S. still feels a sense of urgency to
get the security pact signed because of the implications for North
Atlantic Treaty Organization partners who need more time to plan
deployments. "The costs go up. The complications go up," one senior
military official said.
To step up the pressure, officials
said, Mr. Obama is expected to ask the military to initiate planning
for a full troop withdrawal from Afghanistan if Mr. Karzai doesn't sign
the security pact soon, most likely before a NATO summit in Brussels
this month.
By scaling the drawdown to accommodate
additional delays, U.S. military leaders wanted to make sure logistical
hurdles wouldn't be the deciding factor for Mr. Obama if he decides to
withdraw all U.S. troops from Afghanistan.
The revised
drawdown schedule is based on a new plan the Pentagon presented to the
White House in January that calls for keeping 10,000 U.S. troops in
Afghanistan after 2014 at a limited number of bases. Military commanders
say the force is needed to provide a stabilizing presence after this
year's election. Military officials also believe a limited advisory
mission will help maintain progress Afghan security forces made in
recent years.
The Obama administration has been skeptical
of the value of a long-term troop presence. The new military plan would
draw down that 10,000-member force in two years, with the intent of
being able to remove all American troops by the end of the Obama
administration except for military personnel who would work in a defense
office at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul.
Mr. Karzai, in
refusing to sign the security pact, has said his successor should make
the decision. The Afghan president has been playing what U.S. officials
described as a "game of chicken" with the White House. "We're just
pulling our car off the side of the road," a senior U.S. official said.
But
even with additional time, officials said uncertainties remain. Voting
is scheduled for April 5, but with no single candidate poised to get
more than 50% of the vote, a second round looks likely. This means a new
government is unlikely to take office before August.
Senior
U.S. officials said the military's revised drawdown plan would allow
the U.S. to wait until the end of summer, if not a bit longer, to begin a
final pullout, if one is ordered.
Most of the main
candidates have said they are in favor of a U.S. military presence in
Afghanistan after 2014. Privately, so do some of Mr. Karzai's senior
advisers. But many presidential contenders have become reluctant to
openly back the BSA, say Afghan and Western officials, for fear this
would alienate Mr. Karzai just as election campaigning gains steam.
Under
the revised drawdown plan Gen. Joseph Dunford, the commander of U.S.
and NATO forces in Afghanistan, put together in recent weeks, the U.S.
military will have all equipment in place in Afghanistan by July to
support a post-2014 force that includes 10,000 American troops,
officials said.
The equipment is likely to include
helicopters and limited numbers of mine-resistant troop transport
vehicles. It would mainly be used to protect bases in the country that
would be used for training and advising Afghan command units, and to
house American spies and diplomats.
That means the
Pentagon will go into the summer prepared to accommodate either outcome:
a presidential decision to keep 10,000 troops in Afghanistan post-2014
or an order to pull all of the troops out by year-end, officials said.
The
adjustments have the backing of Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff. A senior military official said Gen.
Dempsey's goal was to provide "more decision space to policy makers."
The
biggest challenge for the U.S. military would be closing big air bases
like the one in Kandahar in southern Afghanistan. In the past, military
officials estimated that it could take as long as 10 months to close
such bases. But commanders now say they can do the job in less time.
While
the U.S. military now believes it can wait until the summer—or
longer—to decide on a post-2014 presence, other NATO allies have told
the Pentagon that they are more concerned about further delays in
getting a security agreement.
Unlike the U.S., these
countries don't have the equipment and military capabilities needed to
wait until the fall to make a final decision.
Rear Adm.
John Kirby, the Pentagon's press secretary, said there has been no
change in the Pentagon's position that the security accord should be
signed "as soon as possible," adding, "Otherwise we are going to have to
start planning for a complete withdrawal."
But a senior
U.S. official said the goal is to provide the White House with the
flexibility to wait out Mr. Karzai's term if he refuses to sign the
agreement.
"Our job is to be able to provide options," the
official said. "This maintains flexibility should Karzai take a pass on
the BSA. But that is not the desired outcome."
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